Item 1A. Risk Factors
Our business is subject to many risks. The following risks, some of which have occurred and any of which may occur in the future, could materially and adversely affect our business and financial performance. These are not the only risks we face and there may be other risks that could materially and adversely affect our business and financial performance. Although the risks are organized by headings, and each risk is discussed separately, many are interrelated.
Competitive and Reputational Risks
If we are unable to positively differentiate ourselves from our competitors, our results of operations and financial condition could be adversely affected.
We attempt to differentiate our guest experience through a careful combination of price, merchandise assortment, store environment, convenience, guest service, loyalty programs, advertising, and marketing. Our ability to successfully differentiate ourselves depends on many competitive factors, including guest perceptions regarding our shopping experience, the safety and cleanliness of our stores, our ability to offer products at affordable prices, the desirability and exclusivity of our offerings, our in-stock levels, the effectiveness of our digital channels and fulfillment options, our ability to responsibly source merchandise, and our ability to create a personalized guest experience. If we fail to differentiate our guest experience from our competitors, our results of operations and financial condition could be adversely affected.
Consumers continue to migrate to digital channels and seek out multiple fulfillment options, which has affected the ways we attempt to differentiate ourselves. Since consumers can quickly comparison shop using digital tools, they may make decisions based solely on price or convenience, which could limit our ability to differentiate from our competitors. In addition, providing multiple fulfillment options, expanding our digital channels, and implementing new technology is complex, costly, and may not meet our guests’ expectations. If we are unable to offset our investments in these or other initiatives with improved performance or efficiencies, our results of operations could be adversely affected. In addition, if we do not anticipate and adapt to consumer behavior or developments and offerings by our competitors, we may not be able to compete effectively. For example, we may be unable to match or surpass the advances in technologies and capabilities (including artificial intelligence) that our competitors implement for consumer-facing platforms or for internal operations, which could adversely affect our competitive position. Furthermore, generative artificial intelligence presents emerging ethical issues and could negatively impact our guests and team members. If our use of generative artificial intelligence becomes controversial or is inaccurate or ineffective, our reputation and competitive position could be adversely affected. Consumers may also use third-party channels, devices, technologies, and capabilities (including artificial intelligence) to initiate shopping searches and place orders, which could make us dependent on the capabilities and search algorithms of those third parties to reach those consumers. Any failures or difficulties in executing our differentiation efforts or adapting to offerings by our competitors could adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition.
If we do not anticipate consumer demand and respond quickly to changing consumer preferences, our results of operations and financial condition could be adversely affected.
A large part of our business is dependent on our ability to make trend-right decisions in a broad range of merchandise categories and offer those products at affordable prices. If we do not accurately predict consumer demand and quickly respond to changing consumer preferences and spending patterns, we may experience lower sales, spoilage, and increased inventory markdowns, which could adversely affect our results of operations. Our ability to accurately predict consumer demand and adapt to changing consumer preferences depends on many factors, including obtaining accurate and relevant data on guest preferences, successfully implementing new technologies and capabilities (including artificial intelligence), emphasizing relevant merchandise categories, effectively managing our inventory levels, and implementing competitive and effective pricing and promotion strategies. We have not always been able to accurately predict consumer demand or rapid changes in consumer preferences and spending patterns, which has previously resulted in insufficient or excess inventory, increased inventory markdowns, higher costs (including for storage, transportation, labor, and other expenses), and adverse impacts on our results of operations. If we are unable to accurately predict consumer demand and effectively adapt to future changes in consumer preferences and spending patterns, our results of operations and financial condition could be adversely affected.
Our continued success is dependent on positive perceptions of º£½ÇÉçÇøÆÆ½â°æ which, if eroded, could adversely affect our business and our relationships, including with our guests, team members, and vendors.
We believe that one of the reasons our shareholders, guests, team members, and vendors choose º£½ÇÉçÇøÆÆ½â°æ is the positive reputation we have built over many years for serving those constituencies and the communities in which we operate. To be successful in the future, we must continue to preserve º£½ÇÉçÇøÆÆ½â°æ's reputation. Our reputation is largely based on perceptions. It may be difficult to address negative publicity or sensationalism across media channels, regardless of its accuracy or the reputability of its source, including as a result of fictitious media content (such as content produced by generative artificial intelligence or bad actors). Negative incidents (including those based on differing perspectives or opinions) involving us, our workforce, or others with whom we do business could quickly erode trust and confidence and result in changes in consumer behavior including consumer boycotts, workforce unrest or walkouts, government investigations, and litigation. Negative reputational incidents or negative perceptions of us could adversely affect our business and results of operations, including through lower sales, the termination of business relationships, loss of new store and development opportunities, higher costs, and team member engagement, retention, and recruiting difficulties. We have previously experienced negative perceptions of our business, which have adversely affected consumer behavior and our results of operations, and we could experience similar occurrences in the future. Any of these outcomes could negatively impact our reputation, results of operations, and financial condition.
Our shareholders, guests, team members, vendors, and other third parties (including governmental entities and officials and non-governmental organizations) have evolving, varied, and sometimes conflicting expectations regarding many aspects of our business, including our operations, product and service offerings, and environmental, social, and governance matters. Some of these individuals and organizations have expectations that º£½ÇÉçÇøÆÆ½â°æ offer or not offer certain products and services or pursue or not pursue certain environmental, social, and governance initiatives, including with respect to diversity, equity, and inclusion. We have previously been unable to meet some of those conflicting expectations, which has led to negative publicity and adversely affected our reputation. For example, we experienced adverse reactions from some of our shareholders, guests, team members, and others related to our assortment of Pride Month products in 2023 and other positions we have taken with respect to social issues, including LGBTQIA+ matters, which have previously resulted in consumer boycotts and litigation. We may in the future take actions that do not meet the conflicting expectations of some or all of our shareholders, guests, team members, vendors, and other third parties (including governmental entities and officials and non-governmental organizations) regarding various aspects of our business, including our operations, product and service offerings, and environmental, social, and governance matters. As a result, we may experience adverse perceptions of our business, consumer boycotts, litigation, investigations, and regulatory proceedings. Any of these outcomes could negatively impact our reputation, results of operations, and financial condition.
We previously established, and may continue to establish, various goals and initiatives regarding environmental, social, and governance matters, including with respect to sustainability and human capital management. We have modified and concluded, and may continue to modify and conclude, certain of these goals and initiatives from time to time. For example, we recently announced that we modified and concluded certain of our initiatives related to diversity, equity, and inclusion, which resulted in adverse reactions from some of our shareholders, guests, team members, and others. Our establishment and continuation of any goals or initiatives regarding environmental, social, and governance matters, any modification or termination of such goals or initiatives, or any failure or perceived failure by us to achieve them, could result in negative reactions from our shareholders, guests, team members, vendors, and other third parties (including governmental entities and officials and non-governmental organizations) and lead to adverse perceptions of our business, consumer boycotts, litigation, investigations, and regulatory proceedings. In particular, certain federal and state officials and agencies have asserted that corporate initiatives regarding environmental, social, and governance matters, including with respect to sustainability and diversity, equity, and inclusion, violate various federal and state laws. Although we believe that all of our corporate initiatives have complied with applicable laws, we could still become subject to litigation, investigations, and regulatory proceedings, including as it relates to corporate initiatives that have concluded. Any of these outcomes could negatively impact our reputation, results of operations, and financial condition.
Reputational harm can also occur indirectly through companies and others with whom we do business or whose products we sell. We have consumer-facing relationships with a variety of other companies, including Apple, CVS, Disney, Levi’s, Starbucks, and Ulta Beauty. In addition, we have relationships with third-party companies that sell and ship items directly to guests through our digital channels. We also have relationships with designers, celebrities, influencers, and other individuals, including for advertising campaigns and marketing programs. If consumers have negative experiences with, or view unfavorably, any of the companies or individuals with whom we have relationships, it could cause them to not shop with us and negatively impact our results of operations.
If we are unable to successfully develop, source, and market our owned and exclusive brand products, our results of operations could be adversely affected.
Our owned and exclusive brand products represent approximately one third of our overall merchandise sales and generally carry higher margins than equivalent national brand products. Our ability to source, develop, and market our owned and exclusive brands depends on many factors, including our ability to anticipate consumer demand and preferences and make trend-right decisions, our relationships with vendors, the availability and price of raw materials, product quality, and our ability to offer products at affordable prices. If we are unable to successfully develop, source, and market our owned and exclusive brands, or if we are unable to successfully protect our related intellectual property rights, our results of operations could be adversely affected. In addition, our reliance on owned and exclusive brand products may also amplify other risks discussed in this Item 1A, Risk Factors, because many of these products are imported and we are more involved in the development and sourcing of those products. For example, any failure of our owned brands to meet applicable safety standards or º£½ÇÉçÇøÆÆ½â°æ's or our guests' expectations regarding safety, quality, supply chain transparency, and responsible sourcing could expose us to government enforcement actions and private litigation, result in costly product recalls and other liabilities, and exacerbate our reputational risks. In addition, owned brand products generally need longer lead times between order placement and product delivery and require us to take ownership of those products earlier in the supply chain. This requires accurate longer-term forecasting of consumer demand to effectively manage our operations, including for categories where consumer preferences may change rapidly, and exposes us to enhanced risks of supply chain disruptions. We have previously been, and may in the future be, unable to accurately predict consumer demand for our owned brand products. This has resulted, and may in the future result, in insufficient or excess inventory, increased inventory markdowns, and higher costs. Any of these outcomes could adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition.
If we are unable to protect against inventory shrink, our results of operations and financial condition could be adversely affected.
Our business depends on our ability to effectively manage our inventory. We have historically experienced loss of inventory (also called shrink) due to damage, theft (including from organized retail crime), and other causes. In recent years, we have experienced elevated levels of inventory shrink relative to historical levels, which have adversely affected, and could continue to adversely affect, our results of operations and financial condition. To protect against rising inventory shrink, we have taken, and may continue to take, certain operational and strategic actions that could adversely affect our reputation, guest experience, and results of operations. In addition, sustained high rates of inventory shrink at certain stores have contributed, and may continue to contribute, to the closure of certain stores and the impairment of long-term assets.
We depend on seasonal moments and higher-margin merchandise to drive sales and net earnings growth.
Our business experiences some seasonality, with a larger portion of our sales traditionally occurring in the fourth quarter because it includes the November and December holiday sales period. In addition to the November and December holiday sales period, we also see increased sales activity during the back-to-school and back-to-college period and other seasonal moments throughout the year. As a result, any factors negatively impacting us during any of these periods, including weather conditions, natural disasters, macroeconomic conditions, consumer preferences, and political or economic uncertainty or instability, could adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition.
We offer our guests a multi-category assortment of everyday essentials and differentiated merchandise. However, we depend on sales of our higher-margin merchandise to drive net earnings growth. As a result, flat sales and sales declines of our higher-margin merchandise have previously limited, and may in the future limit, our ability to drive net earnings growth. Furthermore, we are subject to cyclical trends in consumer spending, which may disproportionately impact sales of certain merchandise and result in lower sales for our higher-margin merchandise. Such trends have previously adversely affected, and could in the future adversely affect, our results of operations.
Investment and Infrastructure Risks
If our capital investments do not achieve appropriate returns or our efficiency efforts are not successful, our competitive position, results of operations, and financial condition could be adversely affected.
Our business depends, in part, on our ability to remodel existing stores and build new stores in a manner that achieves appropriate returns on our capital investment. When building new stores, we compete with other retailers and businesses for suitable locations for our stores. Pursuing the wrong remodel or new store opportunities and any delays, cost increases, or other difficulties related to those projects could adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition. Furthermore, remodels and new store projects have previously been, and may in the future be, delayed or cancelled based on changes in macroeconomic conditions, changes in expected project benefits, and other factors, which could result in the inefficient deployment of our capital and adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition.
We have made, and expect to continue to make, significant investments in our technology infrastructure, digital platforms, and supply chain infrastructure. The effectiveness of these investments can be less predictable than remodeling or building new stores, and might not provide the anticipated benefits, which could adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition. For example, our stores-as-hubs strategy depends on adequate replenishment facilities to receive, store, and move inventory to stores on a timely basis. Underestimating our replenishment capacity needs could result in lower in-stock levels or increased costs for temporary storage. Conversely, overestimating replenishment capacity needs, changes in macroeconomic conditions, changes in expected project benefits, and other factors have resulted, and could in the future result, in delays or cancellations of supply chain infrastructure projects. Such delays or cancellations have resulted, and may in the future result, in the inefficient deployment of our capital relative to our expectations, including as a result of carrying costs for facilities that are not being utilized. Any of these outcomes could adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition.
In addition, we have undertaken an enterprise-wide initiative to simplify and gain efficiencies across our business, with a focus on reducing complexities and lowering costs. We cannot guarantee that we will realize all of the potential cost savings from this initiative and we may experience difficulties and delays in identifying and achieving such cost savings, which could adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition.
A significant disruption to our technology systems and our failure to adequately maintain and update those systems could adversely affect our operations and negatively affect our guests.
We rely extensively on technology systems throughout our business, including systems that we develop internally. We also rely on continued and unimpeded access to the Internet to use our technology systems. These systems are subject to possible damage or interruption from many events, including power and other outages, telecommunications failures, third-party failures, malicious attacks, security breaches, unplanned downtime, program transitions, and implementation errors. Any damage or disruption to our technology systems could severely interrupt our business operations, including our ability to process guest transactions and manage inventories, which could adversely affect our reputation, results of operations, and financial condition. For example, in the past, we have experienced disruptions in our point-of-sale system that prevented our ability to process debit or credit transactions, which negatively impacted some guests’ experiences and generated negative publicity. We have invested, and expect to continue to invest, in maintaining and updating our technology systems, but implementing significant changes increases the risk of system disruption. Furthermore, the technology systems that we develop internally may become outdated or ineffective and may be unable to match or surpass third-party systems. Problems and interruptions associated with implementing technology initiatives could adversely affect our operational efficiency and negatively impact our guests and their confidence in us. Any of these outcomes could adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition.
Information Security, Cybersecurity, and Data Privacy Risks
If our efforts to maintain information security, cybersecurity, and data privacy are unsuccessful or if we are unable to meet increasingly demanding regulatory requirements, our reputation, results of operations, and financial condition could be adversely affected.
As part of our business, we receive and store information about our guests, team members, vendors, and other third parties. We also rely extensively on information systems throughout our business. We have programs in place to detect, contain, and respond to information security, cybersecurity, and data privacy incidents. However, we may be unable to anticipate security incidents, detect attacks, or implement adequate preventive measures as cyber threats continue to evolve and cyberattacks become more sophisticated and frequent, including through the introduction of viruses and malware (such as ransomware) and the use of enhanced technologies and capabilities (including artificial intelligence) by threat actors. Cyberattacks are being carried out by groups and individuals with a wide range of expertise and motives. In addition, hardware or software that we develop or obtain from third parties may contain defects that could compromise information security, cybersecurity, or data privacy. Unauthorized parties may also attempt to gain access to our information systems or facilities, or those of third parties with whom we do business, through fraud, deception, social engineering, or other bad acts. Errors or malicious actions by our team members or contractors, faulty password management, and other vulnerabilities or irregularities could also overcome our security measures or those of third parties with whom we do business and result in a compromise or breach of our or their information systems. The utilization of hybrid and remote work by our team members, vendors, independent contractors, and other third parties has amplified our already extensive reliance on computing and information systems and unimpeded Internet access. Furthermore, the training we conduct as part of our information security, cybersecurity, and data privacy efforts may not be effective in preventing or limiting successful attacks.
We and our vendors face attempts by others to gain unauthorized access to, sabotage, take control of, and corrupt, our information systems and data. As a result of these types of attempts, both we and our vendors have experienced information security, cybersecurity, and data privacy incidents. None of these incidents has recently had a material impact on our business strategy, results of operations, or financial condition. Since we previously experienced a prominent data breach, additional information security, cybersecurity, or data privacy incidents could draw greater scrutiny. If we, our vendors, or other third parties with whom we do business experience additional significant information security, cybersecurity, or data privacy incidents or fail to detect and appropriately respond to significant incidents, our business operations could be severely disrupted and we could be exposed to costly government enforcement actions and private litigation. In addition, our guests could lose confidence in our ability to protect their information, stop using our º£½ÇÉçÇøÆÆ½â°æ-branded payment cards or loyalty programs, or stop shopping with us altogether. Any of these outcomes could adversely affect our reputation, results of operations, and financial condition.
The legal and regulatory environment regarding information security, cybersecurity, and data privacy is dynamic and has strict requirements, including for the use and treatment of personal data. Complying with current or contemplated information security, cybersecurity, data privacy, data protection, and data processing laws and regulations (including reporting and disclosure regimes), or any failure to comply, could cause us to incur substantial costs, require changes to our business practices, and expose us to litigation and regulatory risks, each of which could adversely affect our reputation, results of operations, and financial condition.
Supply Chain and Third-Party Risks
Changes in our relationships with our vendors or other companies, changes in tax or trade policy, interruptions in our operations or supply chain, and increased commodity or supply chain costs could adversely affect our reputation and results of operations.
We are dependent on our vendors, independent contractors, and other third parties (including common carriers) to supply merchandise to our distribution centers, stores, and guests. If our replenishment and fulfillment network does not operate properly, if we are unable to timely import certain merchandise, if a vendor fails to deliver on its commitments, or if common carriers have difficulty providing capacity to meet demands for their services like they experienced in recent years, we could experience merchandise out-of-stocks, delays in shipping and receiving merchandise, and increased costs, which could adversely affect our reputation and results of operations. In addition, we have consumer-facing relationships with a variety of other companies, including Apple, CVS, Disney, Levi’s, Starbucks, and Ulta Beauty. Any termination of, or adverse change in, our relationship with any of these companies could decrease our sales, increase our costs, and negatively impact our reputation and results of operations.
A significant portion of the merchandise that we offer is sourced, directly or indirectly, from outside the U.S., with China as our single largest source of merchandise we import. Any trade disputes or changes in tax or trade policy between the U.S. and countries from which we source merchandise, such as the imposition of additional tariffs or duties on imported products, could require us to take certain actions, including raising prices on products we sell and seeking alternative sources of supply from vendors in other countries. In particular, recent U.S. tariffs imposed or threatened to be imposed on China, Mexico, Canada, and other countries and any retaliatory actions taken by such countries could result in us incurring substantial additional costs to procure a large portion of the merchandise we offer and may require us to raise prices on certain products. In addition, if our competitors do not keep pace with any such price increases or are able to offset the impact of tariffs through other actions, our competitive position may be adversely affected. Any of these outcomes could adversely affect our reputation, results of operations, and financial condition.
Political or economic uncertainty or instability, trade policies, disputes, or sanctions, currency fluctuations, the outbreak of pandemics or other illnesses, labor shortages, labor unrest or strikes, transport capacity and costs, inflation, port security, weather conditions, natural disasters, geopolitical conflicts, social unrest, terrorist attacks, armed conflicts, or other events that have affected, and could in the future affect, foreign trade are beyond our control. These types of events have impacted us, and could impact us in the future, including by disrupting our supply of merchandise, increasing the price and limiting the availability of raw materials, increasing our costs, and adversely affecting our results of operations. For example, there have been periodic closings and ship diversions, armed conflicts, unrest, labor disputes, and congestion disrupting railways, trucking, waterways, and ports around the world, including at major U.S. ports where we receive a significant portion of the products we source from outside the U.S. We have from time to time made alternative arrangements to continue the flow of inventory as a result of supply chain disruptions in the U.S. and other countries. If these types of events recur and impact any of the locations or modes of transportation that we depend on, it could increase our costs and adversely affect our supply of inventory. In addition, prices of fuel and other commodities on which our supply chain depends are historically volatile and subject to fluctuations based on a variety of international and domestic factors. Rapid and significant changes in commodity prices, as have occurred in recent years, could further increase our costs and adversely affect our results of operations.
If services we obtain from third parties are unavailable, fail to meet our standards, or increase in cost, our reputation, results of operations, and financial condition could be adversely affected.
We rely on third parties to support our business operations, including portions of our technology infrastructure, digital platforms, replenishment and fulfillment operations, store and supply chain infrastructure, delivery services (including by independent contractors via our Shipt subsidiary), guest contact centers, payment processing, and extensions of credit for our º£½ÇÉçÇøÆÆ½â°æ-branded payment card program. If we are unable to contract with third parties having the specialized skills needed to support our operations (including as a result of any labor disputes or labor unavailability at such third parties), if any third-party services are interrupted, or if they fail to meet our performance standards, then our reputation and results of operations could be adversely affected.
In addition, we incur significant expenses related to our reliance on services from third parties. If we are unable to effectively manage these costs or if we face significant increases in any of these costs, our results of operations and financial condition could be adversely affected. In particular, for certain payment methods, including credit and debit cards, we generally pay interchange fees and other processing fees. Given the continued adoption of credit and debit cards by consumers, we have incurred, and expect to continue to incur, significant costs as a result of these fees. Any increase in these fees over time could significantly increase our expenses and adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition.
Legal, Regulatory, Global, and Other External Risks
Our earnings depend on the state of macroeconomic conditions and consumer confidence and spending in the U.S.
Nearly all of our sales are in the U.S., making our results highly dependent on the health of the U.S. economy and U.S. consumer behavior, confidence, and spending, which can be affected by a variety of factors, including inflation, interest rates, housing prices, unemployment rates, legal and regulatory actions (including through executive orders), immigration policies and trends, household debt and wage levels, credit usage, and crime rates. In addition, the interconnected nature of the global economy means that events occurring domestically or internationally, such as geopolitical conflicts, social unrest, terrorist attacks, armed conflicts, public health crises, legal and regulatory actions, immigration policies and trends, energy availability, trade policies, disputes, or sanctions, and market volatility can all affect macroeconomic conditions in the U.S. A deterioration in U.S. macroeconomic conditions or consumer confidence or spending could adversely affect our business in many ways, such as negatively impacting consumer demand (which may disproportionately affect demand for certain merchandise), reducing sales (including our credit card profit-sharing revenue), reducing gross margins, and increasing our expenses, each of which could adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition.
Uncharacteristic or significant weather conditions or natural disasters, the impacts of a changing climate, and other catastrophic events could adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition.
Uncharacteristic or significant weather conditions, including the physical impacts of a changing climate, and other catastrophic events can affect consumer shopping patterns, particularly in apparel and seasonal items, which could lead to lower sales or greater than expected markdowns and adversely affect our results of operations. In addition, we have significant operations in certain states where natural disasters (including hurricanes, tropical storms, floods, fires, and earthquakes) are more prevalent. Natural disasters in those states or in other areas where we operate has previously resulted, and could in the future result, in significant physical damage to, or closure of, one or more of our stores, distribution centers, facilities, or key vendors. Furthermore, weather conditions, natural disasters, and other catastrophic events in areas where we or our vendors operate, or depend upon for continued operations, have adversely affected, and could in the future adversely affect, the availability and cost of certain products within our supply chain, consumer purchasing power, and consumer demand. Additionally, acts of violence and other crimes, including active shooter situations, at or around our stores, distribution centers, or other facilities may negatively impact the safety and security of our workforce and guests, damage our facilities, and harm our reputation. Any of these events could adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition.
The potential impacts of a changing climate may be widespread and unpredictable and present a variety of risks in the short-term and long-term. The physical effects of a changing climate, such as natural disasters, extreme weather conditions, drought, and rising sea levels, could adversely affect our results of operations, including by increasing our energy costs, disrupting our supply chain, negatively impacting our workforce, damaging our stores, distribution centers, and inventory, and threatening the habitability of the locations in which we operate. In addition to physical risks, the potential impacts of a changing climate also present transition risks, including regulatory and reputational risks. For example, we use commodities and energy inputs in our operations that may face increased regulation due to a changing climate or other environmental concerns, which could increase our costs. Furthermore, our establishment and continuation of our goals and initiatives to create a more resilient business, or any modification, conclusion, failure, or perceived failure by us to achieve them, or to otherwise meet evolving, varied, and sometimes conflicting expectations from our shareholders, guests, team members, vendors, and other third parties (including governmental entities and officials and non-governmental organizations) regarding the environment and our goals and initiatives to create a more resilient business, could lead to adverse perceptions of our business, consumer boycotts, litigation, investigations, and regulatory proceedings. Any of these outcomes could adversely affect our reputation, results of operations, and financial condition.
We rely on a large, global, and changing workforce of team members, contractors, and temporary staffing. If we do not effectively manage our workforce, our labor costs and results of operations could be adversely affected.
With over 400,000 team members, our workforce costs represent our largest operating expense, and our business is dependent on our ability to attract, train, and retain the appropriate mix of qualified team members, contractors, and temporary staffing. Many team members are in entry-level or part-time positions with high turnover rates historically. Our ability to meet our changing labor needs while controlling our costs is subject to external factors such as labor laws and regulations, labor availability, unemployment levels, prevailing wage rates, benefit costs, changing demographics, immigration laws and regulations (including through executive orders), and our reputation within the labor market. If we are unable to attract and retain a workforce meeting our needs (including for specialized roles with significant competition for talent) or are unable to successfully execute on succession planning at all levels of the organization, our operations, strategy, guest service levels, support functions, and competitiveness could suffer. Any of these outcomes could adversely affect our reputation, results of operations, and financial condition. We are periodically subject to labor organizing efforts and activism, which could negatively impact how we are perceived by team members and our overall reputation. If we become subject to one or more collective bargaining agreements in the future, it could adversely affect our labor costs, how we operate our business, and our results of operations. In addition to our U.S. operations, we perform additional administrative functions in Bangalore, India, and perform global sourcing operations from offices in 12 countries, predominantly in Asia and Central America, and any extended disruption of our operations in our different locations, whether due to labor difficulties or otherwise, could adversely affect our results of operations. In particular, we rely on our administrative functions in India for various business operations and any events that negatively impact the availability or effectiveness of our administrative functions in India, including political or economic uncertainty or instability, the outbreak of pandemics or other illnesses, labor shortages, labor unrest or strikes, weather conditions, natural disasters, geopolitical conflicts, social unrest, terrorist attacks, and armed conflicts, could adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition.
Failure to address product safety and sourcing concerns could adversely affect our results of operations.
If any of our merchandise offerings do not meet applicable safety standards or º£½ÇÉçÇøÆÆ½â°æâ€™s or our guests’ expectations regarding safety, supply chain transparency, and responsible sourcing, we could be exposed to legal and reputational risks and our results of operations could be adversely affected. Our vendors must comply with applicable product safety laws, and we are dependent on them to ensure that the products we buy comply with all safety standards. Events that give rise to actual or perceived product safety concerns, including food or drug contamination and product defects, could expose us to government enforcement actions and private litigation and result in costly product recalls and other liabilities. Our sourcing vendors, including any third parties selling through our digital channels, must also meet our expectations and comply with applicable laws and regulations across multiple areas of social compliance, including supply chain transparency and responsible sourcing. We have a social compliance audit process that performs audits regularly, but we cannot continuously monitor every vendor, so we are also dependent on our vendors to ensure that the products we buy comply with applicable standards. If we need to seek alternative sources of supply from vendors with whom we have less familiarity, the risk of these standards not being met may increase. Negative guest perceptions regarding the safety and sourcing of the products we sell could harm our reputation and adversely affect our results of operations.
Our failure to comply with applicable laws, or changes in these laws, could adversely affect our reputation, results of operations, and financial condition.
Our business is subject to a wide variety of complex laws and regulations.
Our expenses could increase and our operations could be adversely affected by changes in law or adverse judicial developments involving our workforce, including an employer’s obligation to recognize collective bargaining units, minimum wage requirements, advance scheduling notice requirements, health care or other mandates, the classification of exempt and non-exempt employees, and the classification of workers as either employees or independent contractors. The classification of workers as employees or independent contractors, in particular, is an area that has experienced legal challenges and legislative changes. Our Shipt subsidiary, which facilitates delivery services (including same-day delivery to our guests), has faced, and continues to face, legal challenges to its worker classification. If, as a result of judicial decisions or legislation, Shipt is required to treat its network of independent contractors as employees, we may experience higher digital fulfillment costs, which could adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition.
There have been, and may continue to be, changes in the legal or regulatory environment (including as a result of executive orders) affecting many areas related to our business, including merchandise costs and availability, workforce availability, transport costs and capacity, information security, cybersecurity, and data privacy, supply chain requirements, product safety, product quality, payment methods, environmental, social, and governance matters (including sustainability and diversity, equity, and inclusion), and climate and emissions disclosure. The ultimate impact of any changes in the legal or regulatory environment (including as a result of executive orders) is not possible to predict and could negatively affect our results of operations and financial condition, including by increasing our expenses, reducing consumer demand for our products and services, limiting workforce availability for us and our vendors, and resulting in litigation, investigations, and regulatory proceedings against us. In addition, if we are unable or perceived to be unable to comply with any changes in the legal or regulatory environment (including as a result of executive orders), our reputation, results of operations, and financial condition could be adversely affected. Furthermore, if we fail to comply with other applicable laws and regulations, including the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act and other anti-bribery laws, anti-money laundering laws, import restrictions, responsible sourcing laws, and sanctions programs, we could be subject to legal and reputational risks, including government enforcement actions and private litigation, which could adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition.
Litigation and other legal proceedings may adversely affect our reputation, results of operations, and financial condition.
We are regularly involved in a variety of legal proceedings, including litigation, arbitration, claims, investigations, and inquiries. The frequency of any such proceedings could increase in the future. These proceedings relate to a wide range of matters, including commercial disputes, employment, environmental, social, and governance matters, intellectual property rights, personal injury, shareholder actions, securities claims, and matters relating to our compliance with applicable laws and regulations. These matters are inherently uncertain, and we may not be successful in defending ourselves. Determining applicable reserves and possible losses related to such matters involves judgment and may not reflect the full range of uncertainties and unpredictable outcomes. In addition, our assessment of the materiality and likely outcome of these matters may not be consistent with the ultimate outcome of such matters. Responding to these matters has required, and may in the future require, us to devote significant resources and incur significant expenses, even for those that are non-meritorious, which could adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition. Any of these proceedings could also generate negative publicity that adversely affects our reputation.
Financial Risks
Increases in our effective income tax rate could adversely affect our results of operations.
Several factors influence our effective income tax rate, including domestic and international tax laws and regulations, the related interpretations, and our ability to sustain our reporting positions on examination. Changes in any of those factors could change our effective tax rate, which could adversely affect our net earnings. In addition, changes in our operations both in and outside of the U.S. may cause greater volatility in our effective tax rate. Furthermore, we are subject to regular reviews and ongoing audits by both domestic and international tax authorities. Although we believe our tax positions and estimates are reasonable, the ultimate tax outcome could differ significantly from our recorded tax amounts and could adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition.
If we are unable to access the capital markets or obtain bank credit, our financial condition and results of operations could suffer.
We are dependent on a stable, liquid, and well-functioning financial system to fund our operations and capital investments. Our continued access to financial markets depends on multiple factors including the condition of debt capital markets, the condition of the banking sector, our operating performance, and our credit ratings. If rating agencies lower our credit ratings, it could adversely affect our ability to access the debt markets, our cost of funds, and other terms for new debt issuances and borrowings. Each of the credit rating agencies reviews its rating periodically, and there is no guarantee that our current credit ratings will remain the same. In addition, we use a variety of derivative products to manage our exposure to market risk, principally interest rate fluctuations. Disruptions or turmoil in the financial markets could reduce our ability to fund our operations and capital investments and lead to losses on derivative positions from counterparty failures, which could adversely affect our financial condition and results of operations.
If we fail to achieve our projected results or otherwise fail to meet market expectations regarding our financial performance, the price and volatility of our stock could be adversely affected.
Our results of operations have previously fluctuated from quarter to quarter, sometimes significantly, and may do so again in the future. If we fail to achieve our projected results, if our guidance is not aligned with market expectations, if we modify our guidance, if we modify our share repurchase program or our approach to dividend distributions, or if we fail to meet the expectations of investors or securities analysts, our stock price may decline (as it has at times in recent years), and the decrease in the stock price may be disproportionate to any shortfall in our financial performance. Additionally, factors such as performance results for our competitors and news or announcements by us, our competitors, and other third parties (including governmental entities and officials and non-governmental organizations) may result in a decline and volatility in our stock price.